Cheltenham Tips from Keith "The Camel" Hawkins

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Cheltenham Tips from Keith "The Camel" Hawkins

Postby The Fox » Tue Mar 15, 2016 1:14 am

Keith has been on the poker scene for nearly as long as me and is a respected Horse punter. So here are his thoughts on Cheltenham from his FB Page.

I've had 3 or 4 people ask me to give them some tips for Cheltenham, so I thought I'd make a quick post.

It certainly doesn't get any easier as the years go by. So many short priced favourites this year with outstanding chances, most of them trained by Willie Mullins.

Horses like Un De Sceaux, Vroum Vroum Mag and the outstanding beast Douvan are very likely to win and if backing short priced favourites at big meetings are your thing, crack on and have fun.

I prefer to try to find bigger priced horses with realistic chances who might have been a bit under rated by the market and bookmakers.

I think I've found a couple which might be worth a few quid.

The Champion Hurdle this year looks a very sub standard renewal. Faugheen would have eaten this lot for breakfast, but sadly due to injury the Machine won't be lining up.

This leaves the race absolutely wide open. And the more I look at the market leaders, the less I like them. Annie Power is favourite, but do you really want to back a horse at 5/2 who wasn't even being considered for the race 3 weeks ago? She does get a handy sex allowance, but her rating suggests she isn't any better than these and she surely must be better over further (2nd in the World Hurdle in 2014).

I can't have The New One with stolen money. He's had plenty of chances in top grade, but he comes up short. Similarly Nicholls Canyon must better over further and was bitterly disappointing LTO. Identity Thief has the most progressive profile of those at the top of the market, but I'd want 10/1+ before being interested as he has something to find on form.

That should build a statue for Nicky Henderson if he can get My Tent Or Yours to win after a 2 year absence.

The one I like is Camping Ground at 22/1 or 25/1. He is actually the top rated horse in the race. You can forget his last run, he pulled too hard over 3m and didn't get home. But his startling performance in the Relkeel Hurdle sticks in my mind. He absolutely smashed a good field, and stormed up the hill.

I've got to think Nicholls Canyon and Annie Power will ensure this is run at a decent pace, and that will suit Camping Ground perfectly. If he was trained by someone like Paul Nicholls or Willie Mullins I'm convinced he'd be a 6/'1 shot. Mark Walford might be unheralded, but he can certainly do the job.

Camping Ground is no certainty, but I'm certain he should be shorter than 25/1. Worth a few quid each way I think but don't go mad.
The other one I like runs later in the week, will post it then.

Good luck!

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